The upper level support is still well behind the surface features and we will likely only see 40-50 kts of mid-level flow over the highlighted area. However, 0-6 bulk shear vectors crossing the dryline roughly at 70 degrees should promote discrete storms early on. Storms will probably cluster into a line after a few hours because of the meridional component of the upper level flow above 500mb. Moisture doesn't look to be a problem today. Already, low 60 dews from TX Hill Country up through W OK to the KS border. There are minor discrepencies between the RUC and the NAM on dryline placement and surface flow. The NAM is progging more backing to the sfc flow and thus stronger convergence at the dryline in the TX/OK panhandle. The NAM is less bullish with moisture advection though, and thus shows weaker instability over WC OK and the panhandles.
A few storms should fire along the dryline in the Eastern TX panhandle between 20-23Z.
The NAM is showing a narrow tongue of MLCAPE values of 2000 J/kg and 0-3 SRH values >200 m/s2 in WC and NW Oklahoma. If storms can move NE into this narrow corridor of higher instability and remain discrete, then I wouldn't be surprised to see a report of a strong tornado in that area.
Based on what I'm seeing, I would still probably sit tight in Pampa, TX or and await initiation.
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