4/13/14 Forecast

Well, models are all over the place with what is going to happen later this afternoon and into tonight.  Here's an overview of what the latest hi-res model guidance suggests and some current trends:

13Z HRRR shows storms along dryline by 20Z

15Z run of Rapid Refresh model only shows storms along cold front by 0Z.  

The 12Z runs of 4km NAM/12km NAM/GFS didn't initiate convection along dryline either.  

So, what should we expect.  Tough to say.  Right now the mid-level jet max is moving across C TX and should aid in lift along the dryline.  Enhanced moisture convergence is noted just behind the dryline from Abilene and areas to the north.  Right now, TCU is showing up on satellite in that same area:

It appears we will have initiation in the next couple hours.  I believe the consistent cloud shield east of the 35 corridor will decrease severe storm chances in the near term for the metroplex.  Areas north of the cloud shield are seeing clear skies, increasing instability (SBCAPE >1500 J/kg), and good effective shear of 50-60 kts.  Let's hope that we see some stronger surface pressure falls over the area so that the winds don't veer in front of the dryline.

I leave work at around 3 with Daniel. 

Initial Target: Gainesville

4/1/14 quick forecast

HRRR and RAP continue to show initiation in the 5-6pm timeframe south of Wichita Falls.  Cu field developing just east of that area near the intersection of a dryline and cold front.

Both the 18Z RAP and 17 HRRR showing storms along dryline today.  Hope this verifies!

Hodos are quite elongated east of the dryline this evening.  Also, 40-50 kts of bulk shear should maintain supercell organization.  If storms can get rotating and fight the strengthening cap, then we should have quite the show this evening.  Or it could be a bust.  The atmosphere better not be playing a trick on us today!

Initial target: Wichita Falls

3/28/14 Chase

Quick summary for now.  Add more later.

Targeted Waco.  Left school by 1:30 because of early initiation.  Needed a bit stronger low level flow and a stronger CAP and this day would have been pretty good.  That being said, still jumped on a big HP supercell near the town of Rosebud, TX.  Got first decent gopro footage of a supercell!  Storm was struggling to contain its' cold pool.  There was a weakly rotating wall cloud that quickly became wrapped in rain.

Will post pics later.

3/15/14 Chase

Jumped on first storm near Stephenville.  Stayed on the storm a bit too long but did get some pretty good gopro video of the base of the storm.  Storm had weak RFD cut before it became outflow dominant.

Supercells formed along the dryline to to my SW during this time so I drove down 377 to intercept.  I was a bit late to get into position on the now SE moving supercells near Comanche.  I stopped between Dublin and Comanche and decided to set up shop on top of a hill.  

From a distance I observed a wall cloud beneath the dominant supercell.  It haven't purposefully hung that far back from the base of a supercell before.  Really got to witness the whole storm from NE of the base.  Very impressive!

On my way back through the town of Dublin, the sun began shining under the backside of the anvil and produced the most vivid double rainbow I have ever seen!  The picture doesn't do it justice.

3/15/14 forecast

Well, I'm super pumped for this first setup of the season. It's not a great setup and low level flow will be fairly weak.  However, supercells are possible given 50-60 kts of 0-6 km shear and decent moisture return.     Low 60 dews creeping up to the Red River as of 1530Z:

A weakening lead shortwave will track across N TX and provide lift over a fairly diffuse dryline that will move west to east across C TX.

Both the 12Z runs of the RAP and the HRRR  show a weak meso-low develop near Abilene.   Sfc winds are weak but look to back a bit ahead of this low.

I'm going to play near this low if it materializes today.  Will be watching vis sat to see for breaks in the clouds.  If we can get some insolation today then MLCAPE's should reach 1000 J/kg.  This combined with the shear should give us rotating storms.  Whether they stay isolated may be the big question today.  There is a bit more of a cap today south of the metroplex.  Hopefully this will keep a grungefest from occurring.

I'm thinking we will see a QLCS form NW and W of the metroplex today and sweep through early this evening.  Storms should grow upscale and I'm looking for the tail-end charlie play today.

Wouldn't be surprised if I'm down near the Comanche - Waco area later today.

Great day to test the equipment!