3/15/14 forecast

Well, I'm super pumped for this first setup of the season. It's not a great setup and low level flow will be fairly weak.  However, supercells are possible given 50-60 kts of 0-6 km shear and decent moisture return.     Low 60 dews creeping up to the Red River as of 1530Z:

A weakening lead shortwave will track across N TX and provide lift over a fairly diffuse dryline that will move west to east across C TX.

Both the 12Z runs of the RAP and the HRRR  show a weak meso-low develop near Abilene.   Sfc winds are weak but look to back a bit ahead of this low.

I'm going to play near this low if it materializes today.  Will be watching vis sat to see for breaks in the clouds.  If we can get some insolation today then MLCAPE's should reach 1000 J/kg.  This combined with the shear should give us rotating storms.  Whether they stay isolated may be the big question today.  There is a bit more of a cap today south of the metroplex.  Hopefully this will keep a grungefest from occurring.

I'm thinking we will see a QLCS form NW and W of the metroplex today and sweep through early this evening.  Storms should grow upscale and I'm looking for the tail-end charlie play today.

Wouldn't be surprised if I'm down near the Comanche - Waco area later today.

Great day to test the equipment!