4/13/14 Forecast

Well, models are all over the place with what is going to happen later this afternoon and into tonight.  Here's an overview of what the latest hi-res model guidance suggests and some current trends:

13Z HRRR shows storms along dryline by 20Z

15Z run of Rapid Refresh model only shows storms along cold front by 0Z.  

The 12Z runs of 4km NAM/12km NAM/GFS didn't initiate convection along dryline either.  

So, what should we expect.  Tough to say.  Right now the mid-level jet max is moving across C TX and should aid in lift along the dryline.  Enhanced moisture convergence is noted just behind the dryline from Abilene and areas to the north.  Right now, TCU is showing up on satellite in that same area:

It appears we will have initiation in the next couple hours.  I believe the consistent cloud shield east of the 35 corridor will decrease severe storm chances in the near term for the metroplex.  Areas north of the cloud shield are seeing clear skies, increasing instability (SBCAPE >1500 J/kg), and good effective shear of 50-60 kts.  Let's hope that we see some stronger surface pressure falls over the area so that the winds don't veer in front of the dryline.

I leave work at around 3 with Daniel. 

Initial Target: Gainesville