I've been watching this system evolve over the past couple days and haven't posted about it. The closed 500mb low is currently over NM and an attendant 90kt jet streak is rounding the base of the low. The position of the low is far west of the dryline placement today, which is located roughly from Canadian-Childress-SW TX with a slight bulging near the Red River. This morning the WRF 4km models were showing CI occurring around 23-0Z from far Western OK down to just a couple counties west of Fort Worth. The HRRR was also showing CI closer to the SPS area. The problem I'm seeing right now is that it looks like the thin layer of moisture (around 100mb deep) is being mixed out ahead of the dryline south of Childress. This could make it harder for CU to break through the cap to the west of Fort Worth. Now, the HRRR is only showing CI in Western OK closer to the surface low.
If storms can fire, they will become severe very quickly with MLCAPE values AOA 3000 J/kg. If storms can remain discrete, I believe that as the upper level support increases from the west and bulk shear values increase AOA 40kt, then we can get some massive HP supercells with few reports of weak tornadoes. If I were positioning today, I would be parked in Altus, OK (where a cu field is developing) and watch to see which storm becomes dominant. The slow storm speeds today should make for easy viewing of the storms. Structure shots will be a premium today!
I will be sitting at home tonight watching KU try for another basketball championship. GO JAYHAWKS!!
No comments:
Post a Comment