3/18 update

Still armchasing and wishing I was out there today!  :(

Here is what it looks like at the surface at 1843Z:

The dryline hasn't tightened up yet and convergence is still a bit weak because of the strong pressure falls to the west that are backing winds behind the dryline.  The best convergence is to the west and southwest of Childress, TX:

The cap is still holding on and don't have a cu field developing yet:

Upper level support is still in NM and will take some time to overtake the area and combined with dryline convergence, should break the cap with isolated storms.

The HRRR is indicating that the cap will break where convergence is strongest right now (west of Childress, TX):


It keeps that storm isolated and tracks it into a favorable supercell environment characterized by relatively higher SRH values and lower LCL's.

We will see what happens!