I noticed a couple days ago that there was some potential for storms along the retreating warm front on Thursday. After coming back to school from a severe weather protocol session, I started musing over data. I think there is potential for a few reports of tornadoes along the warm front today. Right now, 20Z, the warm front is along a BWD-ACT-JSD line. The warm front will continue north through the night and winds are backing up along the warm front. The area north of the front has been socked in with clouds all day and temperature readings as of 20Z are in the mid 60's. South of the front temps are running in the low 80's. Low level shear should be enought to get some low level mesos going with any storm that becomes mature. With the cap becoming negligible in the next hour or so and with convective temps being reached, I'm afraid that lots of storms will be competing at first. A pretty robust cu field is moving north along the aforementioned line. I will monitor trends over the next hour and probably make my way south to get out of the metroplex. Whether I go east or west from there will be the next choice.
SPC's has 5% tornado probability over the area.
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