- negatively tilted H5 trough with westerly jet max nudging in at time of peak heating
- sfc moisture return into warm sector with low to mid 60's Td's nosing into NE OK by 00Z
- Dryline from triple point near KICT draped south along I-35 corridor with associated bulge in N OK
- Cape values aoa 2000 J/kg
- reduced CIN inv of dryline along I-35 corridor from KICT down to red river area
- both are closing off the H5 low. The GFS the more active one
- Low LCL's aob 1250m
The GFS is closing the H5 low and this is causing veering flow patterns in the low levels along I-35. This is not boding well for tornadic storms. The better directional shear will be in the far eastern sections of the warm sector. If the GFS does verify, storms will struggle to develop low level circulations until they move into better wind fields in E OK/W AR.
The NAM is not closing the H5 low as much and the low level wind fields look much better. H85 winds are still southerly inv of dryline. This is contributing to larger clockwise curved hodographs, especially as the llj strengthens into the early evening in E OK. Sfc flow doesn't back as much along the dryline. That's a little concerning but I think that if storms do fire along the dryline, they should mature and develop better rotation into the eastern section of the warm sector.
I'm hoping that the NAM doesn't continue to veer the low level winds as the GFS is doing. I will probably head towards OKC tomorrow morning and reevaluate the mesoscale conditions around 18Z.
Also, just checked the 00Z 4km WRF model and it looks quite enticing for supercells to form in C OK by 23-00Z and then into S OK a couple hours later.
Simulated Radar Reflectivity
2-5km maximum updraft helicity
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