Need to refocus

Haven't posted in a while.  Been extremely busy with school stuff and field trips and along with an active April season, i haven't posted chase reports nor posted anything else.  So, with potential chase days this week, I better get refocused and get back into the forecast mindset!  I will have the opportunity to chase both on the 19th and 20th. 

It's 3Z, Wednesday the 18th and here's the synoptic breakdown:



Strong H5 trough along west coast.  Will slowly make way towards plains over next couple days.

For Thursday the 19th.  Here are the model differences as of 18Z models.

By 18Z, the 19th, the GFS is a bit deeper with H5 low and places 70kt jet streak along W TX and OK panhandles.  The GFS is also showing a bit more meridional component to the flow and is a bit east of the NAM jet streak placement.

With the deeper H5 low solution of the GFS, a deeper H85 low is also shown.  Flow is near 20kt wwith a strong southerly component (S or SSW).  The GFS continues to deepen H85 low and thus strengthens flow to around 30-35kt. NAM is warmer with temps and also mixes these down to surface.

NAM places broad 997mb sfc low in SE CO.  A warm front extends east through SW KS and looks to not move through 0Z.  Temp gradient is strong with 60's to north and 80's to south of front.  GFS has stronger 994mb low in E CO with WF in N KS.  Also looks like GFS places meso low in SW KS by 0Z.

Dryline placement similar and placed from Hutchinson down through Wichita Falls with mid 60 dews east of line.  Backed sfc flow looks enticing on both models.  Temps in warm sector in the mid 70's on GFS and mid 80's on NAM.  If GFS is to be believed, then LCL's look good < 1000m.

Will analyze models tomorrow, but the GFS solution looks good but it has tended stronger all season long only to putter out the day before.  I believe it has showed run to run consistency though this time.  The 700-500mb lapse rates are not strong at all and I wonder what is causing this.  Other than that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a good chance for a couple tornadoes in SW OK near the LAW area and to the north.  Better shear exists north along the dryline, but I want to stay south due to work restrictions and better moisture and cape profiles.